Climate Model Predicts Future Rains — and Risks in Africa

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One big problem confronts Africa as it tries to predict how its weather patterns will shift in the face of climate change: Almost all the climate models for the continent were created in the United States or Europe.

Now South African climate researcher Francois Engelbrecht has changed that by developing a climate model for Africa, in Africa.

The model aims to "generate reliable projections of future climate change over Africa," said Engelbrecht, the chief researcher for climate studies, modeling and environmental health at South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.

Those projections include figuring out which areas will get more or less rainfall — "a key to adapting agriculture successfully" — or looking at where African grasslands might give way to thickets as more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere drives the growth of trees.

"We know that climate is changing, risks are changing, including changes in the risk of heat waves, flooding, drought, tropical cyclones, changes in growing seasons [and] rising temperatures," said Rachel James, a visiting climate researcher at the University of Cape Town.

"People everywhere will need to adapt to these changing conditions in the years and decades to come," she told Reuters.

"The problem is that we don’t know exactly what will happen in any one location. It’s challenging to predict which areas might get more rainfall and which might get less."